The first wave of baby boomers were born in 1946 and began entering the job market in about 1965.  They were followed by subsequent waves born through 1964.  Their numbers were so great that employers were able to become increasingly selective in their hiring.  The employers were also able to hire folks who were more qualified than those hired for the same type positions during the 1950s.  The employers were able to hire people who were generally better educated, taller, leaner, more articulate, and better looking.  As the baby boomers start retiring, the job market for current skilled employees and new skilled worker hires might resemble the 1950s, except there will be far more women and minorities.  The job market for the unskilled workers might begin to look more like the 1930s, when unemployment was up to 25%.  During the 1950s, jobs were plentiful and even available in non-coastal areas and small towns.  Employers were more likely to move the jobs to where the people were instead of employees needing to relocate.  

 

The Government Accountability Office report GAO-07-753 recommends: “Congress may wish to consider changes to law, programs, and policies that support retirement security, including retirement ages, in order to provide a set of signals that work in tandem to encourage work at older ages.”  Some folks have interpreted this statement to mean “Since we aren’t doing anything about the supply of new workers, let’s keep the current ones working longer!”  Other folks might say that the general public is not ready to accept a significantly higher level of immigrants, so the employers will have to adjust their employee hiring and employee retention practices.  Some companies might continue to move more jobs out of the country rather than make radical adjustments. 

 

Employers were spoiled by the baby boomer labor surplus.  We are now moving toward a skilled labor shortage.  A January 2007 CNN article title was “Skilled worker shortage hurts U.S.”

 

Many businesses might say that hiring skilled workers is tough. Do they really mean that it is tough to make the traditional hires? The traditional hires are the folks between age 22 and age 35 who fit the desired mold. The preference is often for someone lean and good looking.

 

Most US businesses have tended to not hire people past age 35. The people past age 45 have found it much more difficult to get hired. The people past age 55 generally have found it almost impossible to get hired.  One of the early stages of an emerging skilled labor shortage will be seen when the employers are having trouble hiring the traditional skilled workers. They might first cry wolf and try to get immigration rules loosened.  Even if the immigration rules were loosened, the skilled laborers might choose to stay in their home countries because there are now better job opportunities in those countries.  The next stage of an emerging skilled labor shortage will be when employers are willing to hire the non-traditional hires. As the shortage becomes worse, the employers will be willing to go much deeper into the non-traditional labor pool. In essence, when a skilled labor shortage has arrived, the employers will do some of the following:

-- lower their hiring standards,

–  restructure work to push less skilled tasks down to less skilled workers,

-- hire based on who can do the work rather than other artificial and sometimes

erroneous criteria,

-- openly seek to hire qualified applicants between age 35 and age 70,

–  attempt to retain many current employees until age 70,

– permit and even encourage more overtime work during peak periods,

-- aggressively seek qualified part-time employees of all ages,

-- be willing to hire people who can do 80% of the work including short people,

ugly people, fat people, sloppy dressers, non-smooth talkers, and other similar

folks that employers might have previously passed up,

– attempt to move work away from high cost coastal areas and high cost cities to smaller towns where costs are less and skilled labor might be more readily available, and many other innovative techniques will be used to get work done.

 

We are going to have a skilled labor shortage but employers still have many good hiring options if they are flexible. When we get very deep into the non-traditional hires, a real skilled labor shortage will have arrived.  As the cost to hire the traditional hires goes up,  the cost to hire the non-traditional employee will become much more attractive. There are still many non-traditional hires available at a reasonable price.  Hiring non-traditional employees is still an option.

 

Copyright © 2007 by Tom Crouch - This article may be forwarded via e-mail or fax.  Also, the article may be reprinted or posted on a web site, so long as the copyright is shown.  All other rights are reserved.  

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